How the Football World Cup and the Euro drive audiences to historic records

Audience le mag
The Euro 2016 will fire up TV audiences for one month
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This phenomenon repeats with every European Championship and World Cup, especially when France plays at home and does well. An appraisal since the banner year of 1998.

Large audiences are predicted for TF1 and M6 with the Euro 2016, which began Friday, 10 June. Rebroadcasts of matches in the World Cup and European Championship regularly attain historic records. 

Awe-inspiring ratings! Since Médiamat's creation in 1989, the World Cup and the Euro have racked up 9 out of the top 10 ratings in French television history. An unequalled record: the Portugal-France semi-final in the 2006 World Cup was watched by 22.2 million individuals. 
And the Euro's top moment: reaching 21.4 million in 2000 with the France-Italy final, the third-highest rating in the history of TV audiences. The Italy-France final in the 2006 World Cup earned the highest audience share in history with 80.3%. 
What ratings will this edition earn, with rebroadcasts on TF1 (22 matches), M6 (11 matches, including the final on 10 July) and beIN Sports (51 matches, including 18 exclusives)? Not every quadrennial edition is created equal. 

France's performance done in by their dented image

Think back to the 2012 Euro, in Poland and Ukraine, 8 June - 1 July. TF1 and M6 shared the main slate of pool matches, all French games, and those in the final slate, while beIN Sports rebroadcast all matches. 
At the time, several factors contributed to tarnish the French team's brand image. The consequence: their audiences had been relatively small compared to previous editions (11 million fans on average during the 3 group matches, then 11.3 million in the quarter-final against Spain). It is true that two out of France's three matches in the first round were broadcast at 6pm; nevertheless the French team remained far below its ratings in the 2006 World Cup (17 million for the groups, 19.9 million for the final group, 22.1 million for the final).

Matches for other teams generally brought more people together during the 2012 Euro, although not exceeding expectations from previous editions. Due to their elimination in the quarter-final against Spain, France did not earn the highest ratings in the competition – the first time since 1998. The top spot when to the Spain-Italy final: 12.9 million viewers on 1 July (compared to 12.2 million for Sweden-France, 11.3 million for Spain-France, 10.5 million for Ukraine-France, and 10.3 million for France-England). The final had to settle for 23rd in the ranking of Euro and World Cup audiences since 1989 (when Médiamat began). 

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Profile of 2012 Euro fans predominantly male, younger, higher income groups 

Be that as it may, the World Cup and European Championship always shake up the usual profile of regular TV viewers, as football mainly attracts men. Ordinarily, female viewers are the majority in the TV audience, all shows combined. However, the effect of major competitions is changing with each edition. 
What are the basic trends? The TV audience is predominantly male, younger, in higher income groups and more urban than the profile of regular viewers from 6-10:30pm outside of football events. There is no marked difference between the audiences for French and other teams' matches. However, the share of the male audience is higher during matches not involving the French. Other trends have emerged since the euphoric 1998 World Cup: the French team's audience structure is becoming more male (64.1% men compared to 35.9% women during the 2012 Euro). The French team attracts more women when it moves ahead in the qualifications. The share of the female audience verged on 40% of the audience during the 2000 Euro, and reached 45.6% during the final.

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The 2012 Euro: audience records for channels 

Rebroadcasts of competitions attract the most viewers, when live broadcast assumes an important meaning. These events generally bring channels their best ratings, allowing them to beat audience records. TF1's top three historical ratings occurred during European Championship and World Cup matches. And M6 garnered its second, third and fourth best audiences historically with Sweden-France (12.2 million fans and its best market share in prime time: 44%), Ukraine-France (10.5 million, 43.3% audience share in prime time access) and Portugal-Spain (8.8 million). Its historical record (13.2 million with 47.8% audience share) came in prime time with the famous France-Italy match in the third round of the 2008 Euro.

What will happen on 10 July? How far will the French team go? What will they score?


Marc Pellerin

Confidence interval calculus

Sample size or target in the sample

n =

Proportion observed in the sample or on a target in the sample

p =

%

Warning: only applies to a proportion. The Average Rate is an average of proportions and the Audience Share a ratio of proportions. This tool is provided for information purposes. It cannot be applied for professional purposes without further precautions.

Test of significance of the differences between two proportions

Used to assess whether the difference between 2 proportions is significant at the 95% threshold

Proportion

Sample size

1st sample

%

2nd sample

%

Warning: only applies to a proportion. The Average Rate is an average of proportions and the Audience Share a ratio of proportions. This tool is provided for information purposes. It cannot be applied for professional purposes without further precautions.

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